Emergency accommodation placements – flow 15 March-30 September 2020 (persons)
Considering the particular concerns about people experiencing street homelessness – especially the ‘chronic rough sleeper’ component of this cohort – there is a special interest in estimating the numbers of rough sleepers assisted via 2020-2021 EA programs. Former rough sleepers assisted by the Queensland, South Australian and Victorian governments totalled 7,718, as shown in this table. Unfortunately, no equivalent figure was provided by the NSW Government, although it has been officially reported that 4,355 former rough sleepers had been assisted via EA in the period April 2020-January 2021 (NSW Audit Office 2021 p3). These figures suggest that, by early 2021, at least 12,073 (7,718 + 4,355) rough sleepers had benefited from EA programs (of whom 8,284 were in NSW and Victoria). Particularly within the context of the ABS estimate of 8,200 rough sleepers nationally on Census night 2016 (ABS 2018), these are notable figures.
Trend in Specialist Homelessness Service (SHS) user cohorts, Aug 2017-Apr 2021
A new analysis of SHS service user data is presented iin this graph. This analysis, enabled with the kind assistance of the Australian Institute for Health and Welfare (AIHW), differentiates service users in any given month on the following basis: new service user – person receiving services in a given month for the first time (since the current system was established in 2011) continuing service user – person receiving services in a given month and already receiving services in the previous month returning service user – person receiving services in the current month and in an earlier month (since 2011) but not in the previous month. To indicate the relative size of these cohorts, in January 2021, around 87,600 people received SHS services, of whom 76% were continuing clients, 14% returning clients and 10% new service users. Classified as such, this new breakdown arguably provides a more meaningful insight into homelessness trends during the pandemic than the standard data…
Quarterly net internal migration, greater capital cities combined, March 2011 to March 2021
The increased flexibility of working arrangements is also believed to be a strong factor prompting the quantifiable spike in out-migration from capital cities seen in 2020 and 2021. At the same time, as recently highlighted by the Regional Australia Institute (2021), the COVID-19 crisis appears to have caused a marked drop in migration from regional areas to capital cities – down by 11% in 2020 compared with the previous year. Thus ‘regional people have been staying in place in regions in far great numbers’ (ibid p.14). A decline in the flow of people departing to state capitals is likely to have impacted on housing markets to the extent that fewer dwellings will have been coming up for sale or rent. It should be noted that while this figure is presented as including all capital cities, the underlying ABS data show that recent outmigration has been, in fact, entirely confined to Sydney and Melbourne. The relatively limited scale of the movement recorded must also be borne in……
Social housing commencements by jurisdiction, 2007-2020
A key factor affecting the changing scale of social housing provision is new housing construction. This table shows that the years 2009 and 2010 were exceptional, due to the Social Housing Initiative. More recently, new building commencements have oscillated around 3,000 units – or around 1.5% of all housebuilding. This compares with 16% of all residential construction commissioned by state governments in the period 1945-70. Maintaining social housing representation in the national housing portfolio – some 4.2% of occupied dwellings in 2018 – would require a construction share at least at this level. Failure to build at this rate means a continuation of the trend ongoing since the 1990s, whereby social housing continues to decline in these terms (from 6.3% in 1991).
Projected change in social housing proportionate share of all housing, 2021-22 - 2023-24
This graph shows the expected change in social housing as a proportion of all housing between 2021-22 and 2023-24. In jurisdictions such as South Australia, ACT and the Northern Territory which have pledged little or no post-COVID social housing construction stimulus, planned activity is largely focused on replacing rundown public housing, meaning that new development gains will be largely offset by demolition losses. The same is true for NSW. Thus, across Australia, and allowing for both demolitions and sales, we project the net addition to social housing provision over the next three years as around 15,500 dwellings. Victoria and Queensland will be responsible for more than 60% of Australia’s social housing construction (and 80% of the net increase in provision) in this period. The scale of planned development in Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania, will (at least temporarily) reverse historically declining proportionate representation of social housing in these states. Nevertheless,…
Eviction proceedings
This table shows the South Australian Civil and Administrative Tribunal data on landlords’ applications for eviction from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020. It shows that landlords’ eviction applications did indeed dip after the eviction moratorium commenced near the start of Q2 2020, and were down 33% year-on-year in Q4 2020. Nevertheless, over 3,000 tenancies were subject to termination proceedings during the moratorium that year.
Private rental vacancy rates, Australia, Sydney & Melbourne, June 2019 to August 2021
The economic shock associated with the 2020 national lockdown, and resulting reduced demand for rental property, is clearly apparent this graph. However, the impact was larger and more sustained in Sydney and – especially – Melbourne than in Australia as a whole. In these cities this could also have reflected ongoing additions to supply due to the tail end of the 2010s apartment construction boom. The scale of the 2020 vacancy rate increase in Melbourne is the most striking feature of this figure. Notably, this involved a rise of some 18,000 vacant dwellings between March and December – exactly coincident with the reduced number of Melbourne tenancies recorded during this period, as reported in the previous section. Unfortunately, Sydney and Melbourne cannot be excluded from the ‘Australia’ figures in the above graph. If this were possible it would likely show only a very small ‘vacancy rate pandemic impact’ beyond the boundaries of the nation’s two largest cities.
Eligible social housing applicants awaiting tenancy allocation, Australia, 2014-2020
Difficulties encountered by state governments in rehousing homeless people from emergency hotel placements in 2020 and 2021 are just one recent symptom of an intensifying shortage of social housing that was apparent well before the pandemic. Growing demand pressure in the immediate pre-COVID period is, for example, evident in the rising numbers of priority applicants awaiting a social housing tenancy in recent years. Figure 6.1 Since 2016 this cohort has expanded by 51%. This followed a 30% rise in homelessness in the previous decade (ABS 2018).
Flow of new tenancies in private rental housing, NSW & Vic, 2019-19 to 2020-21
It is possible to measure flows in the sector, using new bond lodgements to approximate new tenancies commencing, and bond returns to approximate tenancies terminating. Again, pandemic impacts on rental markets once again initially appear fairly contrasting in NSW and Victoria. Importantly, both states saw a marked annual reduction in new bond lodgements in non-metropolitan markets – by 6% in NSW and by 15% in Victoria. Although the geographical classifications used are non-identical there is an apparently major contrast in that Sydney’s inner and middle ring suburbs saw large increases in new bonds lodged and bonds returned – i.e. tenancy turnover – during 2020-21. Across Melbourne as a whole, meanwhile, tenancy turnover in 2020-21 was on the same level as the previous year.
Projected change in social housing proportionate share of all housing, 2021-22 – 2023-24
This graph shows the expected change in social housing as a proportion of all housing between 2021-22 to 2023-24.