Social housing development activity 2018-20 versus 2021-24
This graph shows the projected national increase in social housing development over the next three years is also in prospect for most jurisdictions. Nevertheless, 61% of all projected commencements over the period will be in just two states, Victoria and Queensland. Despite being the nation’s largest state, NSW will make only a very modest contribution to the Australia-wide total. However, ignoring the highly uneven distribution of this activity across the country, the additional social housing construction projected for delivery ‘as a result of the pandemic’ is substantial.
Rent trends, 2018-21, Australia
This graph shows that financial year 2020-21 saw a remarkable divergence in the ‘asking rents’ and CPI ‘all rents’ trajectories. Initially – from March-September 2020 – this divergence appears to have been driven largely by a small temporary decline in the ‘all rents’ trend. This is likely to have reflected the outcome of tenant-landlord negotiations – whether occasioned by a reduction in the tenants’ incomes, or by changed market conditions in the capital cities. From our earlier fieldwork as part of the current research we know that some 8-16% of tenants secured landlord agreement to a rent reduction during the initial stages of the pandemic.
Average monthly Specialist Homelessness Services (SHS) assisted caseload
To monitor trends in homelessness between censuses, analysts usually focus on the cohort of SHS service users being assisted during the relevant period. This yields statistics on the cohort’s overall size, and on the circumstances and profile of those concerned. As shown in this graph there was little sign of any notable COVID-19 pandemic impact on homelessness in 2020. It should also be acknowledged that SHS service users include people designated as ‘at risk of homelessness’ as well as those actually homeless. The ‘assisted users’ statistics tracked in this figure are essentially ‘stock’ figures that include both ‘ongoing’ service users and people who sought SHS help during the period for the first time (or made a fresh claim for assistance, as former clients from a previous homelessness episode).
Annual change in total rental bonds held, June 2019 - June 2021
Nationally, households occupying a dwelling owned by a private landlord grew by an average of 3% per annum in the decade to 2017-18 (ABS 2019). While there are, as yet, no published statistics on the trajectory of private rental sector growth during the pandemic, we can look to rental bond board data in some jurisdictions to provide an indication of such change. Almost all private sector landlords require tenants to pay a bond at the commencement of a tenancy, and residential tenancies legislation in each state requires these bonds to be lodged with a state government agency; total bonds held by the state agency, therefore, is a proxy for the private rental dwelling stock. Evidence from NSW and Victoria presented in this graph indicates substantially contrasting trajectories in terms of private rental stock change over the period 2018-2021. Whereas annual growth remained above 2% in NSW across all three years, there was a 2% reduction in (occupied) private rental stock in Victoria in…
Overview of pandemic economic shutdowns by jurisdictions
This table shows the timeline of pandemic economic impacts in Australia's 8 state/territories. Crucial here have been the lockdowns that have impeded economic activity, with major implications for employment and incomes, as well as specifically for property transactions. The most significant point of this table is that Victoria alone experienced a long and economically damaging lockdown in the second half of 2020 – an experience which appears to have been reflected in some of the rental market patterns highlighted in subsequent graphs.
Asking rent change, Aug 2020-Jul 2021 – metro versus non-metro comparison
While 2020-21 saw a substantial overall increase in asking rents across Australia, there were market roperty type and inter-city variations. Additionally, there were sharp contrasts between metropolitan and regional markets, with rent rises particularly rapid in the latter. According to CoreLogic’s index, market rents across ‘combined capital cities’ increased by 6.4% in the 12 months to August 2021, whereas the comparable ‘combined regional’ figure was a remarkable 12.4% (CoreLogic 2021b). Especially in NSW, Victoria and Queensland, the rising regional markets indicated in this graph are particularly striking.
Number of existing and new rental listings (dwellings), 2016-2021
As evidence of the highly unusual rental supply conditions during the pandemic, CoreLogic data shows that rental property listings ran well below their historic norms during the first nine months of 2021. For example, in September 2021 new rental listings were running 23% below their 2016-2019 average, while total rental listings were 25% below the equivalent norm.
Rental affordability rates, Victoria, 2017-2021
Victorian Government statistics published in the state’s quarterly Rental Report indicate worsening regional affordability in that state.
Actual and projected new social housing commencements, Australia, 2007 - 2023-24
The projected annual rate of social housing construction 2021-22 – 2023-24 represents almost a threefold increase over the pre-pandemic benchmark rate (7,750 versus 2,610).
Total rental bonds held in NSW & private rental housing stock in Victoria, 2018-2021, indexed
These graphs illustrate private rental stock growth (or decline) rates at sub-jurisdictional scale before and during the pandemic. Despite their differences, there is a degree of consistency in that the early phase of the pandemic saw measurable reductions in capital city private rental populations – albeit that these were more dramatic in size and sustained over time in Melbourne than in Sydney. Numerically, this involved a reduction of some 18,000 occupied private rental dwellings across metropolitan Melbourne – mainly in the Cities of Melbourne and Stonnington, as well as Port Phillip and Boroondara. One other significant point to note is the static stock of private tenancies in non-metropolitan Victoria and in ‘rest of NSW’ – essentially the area beyond the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region. Any increase in demand for rental housing in these localities is therefore likely to have contributed to rising rents.