This graph shows the expected change in social housing as a proportion of all housing between 2021-22 and 2023-24.
In jurisdictions such as South Australia, ACT and the Northern Territory which have pledged little or no post-COVID social housing construction stimulus, planned activity is largely focused on replacing rundown public housing, meaning that new development gains will be largely offset by demolition losses. The same is true for NSW. Thus, across Australia, and allowing for both demolitions and sales, we project the net addition to social housing provision over the next three years as around 15,500 dwellings.
Victoria and Queensland will be responsible for more than 60% of Australia’s social housing construction (and 80% of the net increase in provision) in this period. The scale of planned development in Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania, will (at least temporarily) reverse historically declining proportionate representation of social housing in these states. Nevertheless, in other jurisdictions, and collectively across Australia, continuing diminution of the sector’s share of all dwellings is in prospect. On the current trajectory NSW’s social housing is set to fall below 4% of total occupied stock within 10 years