Poverty with and without COVID income supports
These graphs show the number and rate of people in poverty during the COVID recession and early stages of the recovery up to January 2021. They use the 50% of equivalent disposable household income, and the results have been adjusted to take account of housing costs, and shows the difference that the COVID income support payments (mainly Coronavirus Supplement and JobKeeper Payment) made to the number and rate of people in poverty. The graphs show that: * In June 2020, 9.9% of people were below the poverty line, compared with 11.8% in 2019 and 22.7% who would have been in poverty in June 2020 without the new income supports (Figure 8a). * An estimated 2,613,000 people were in poverty in June 2020, well below the 3,018,000 in 2019, and half the number that would have been in poverty (5,772,000) in June 2020 had COVID income supports not been introduced (Figure 8b). This confounds the traditional view on the impact of recessions on incomes - if income support payments sit below the…
Financial stress among social security recipients and all people (2020)
This graph shows trends in key financial stress indicators.
From September 2019 to December 2020:
* The proportion of people on social security unable to pay their rent or mortgage on time fell from 18% to 4%, while the proportion of the overall population fell from 10% to 4% (aided by rent and mortgage amnesties);
* The proportion of people on social security seeking emergency relief fell from 14% to 9% while the proportion of the overall population fell from 11% to 5%.
NAB financial stress index, 2014 to June 2021
This graphs shows trends in the NAB financial stress index from 2014 to the June quarter of 2021. This measure of financial stress fell sharply in the second quarter of 2020, despite the recession. It then rose sharply in the first two quarters of 2021 among people on low incomes as COVID income supports were reduced and then removed.
Timeline of the pandemic impacts and policy responses
This table shows the impacts of the pandemic in terms of restriction, employment, income support measures and the impacts on the asset market, both during the COVID recession period in 2020 and during the 2021 economic recovery period.
COVID income support for unemployed & fulltime employees (% of median fulltime wage)
This graph compares the poverty line for a single adult living alone with maximum rates of JobSeeker Payment together with Rent Assistance and the Coronavirus Supplement, JobKeeper Payment, and the COVID-19 Disaster Payment, which was introduced in the second wave of the pandemic. All values are expressed as a proportion of the median weekly fulltime wage. The income supports available to a single adult without children who was unemployed were set above the poverty line in the recession, but drifted below it as the Coronavirus Supplement was reduced: * In June 2020 (when the Supplement was $275pw) their income was around 30% above the poverty line. * In September 2020 (after it was reduced to $125pw) they were close to the poverty line. * In March 2021 (after it was reduced to $75pw), they were around 15% below it. * In June 2021, (after the $25pw increase in Jobseeker Payment in April 2021 failed to offset the removal of the Supplement) they were once again around 30% below the…
Social housing commencements by jurisdiction, 2007-2020
A key factor affecting the changing scale of social housing provision is new housing construction. This table shows that the years 2009 and 2010 were exceptional, due to the Social Housing Initiative. More recently, new building commencements have oscillated around 3,000 units – or around 1.5% of all housebuilding. This compares with 16% of all residential construction commissioned by state governments in the period 1945-70. Maintaining social housing representation in the national housing portfolio – some 4.2% of occupied dwellings in 2018 – would require a construction share at least at this level. Failure to build at this rate means a continuation of the trend ongoing since the 1990s, whereby social housing continues to decline in these terms (from 6.3% in 1991).
Projected change in social housing proportionate share of all housing, 2021-22 - 2023-24
This graph shows the expected change in social housing as a proportion of all housing between 2021-22 and 2023-24. In jurisdictions such as South Australia, ACT and the Northern Territory which have pledged little or no post-COVID social housing construction stimulus, planned activity is largely focused on replacing rundown public housing, meaning that new development gains will be largely offset by demolition losses. The same is true for NSW. Thus, across Australia, and allowing for both demolitions and sales, we project the net addition to social housing provision over the next three years as around 15,500 dwellings. Victoria and Queensland will be responsible for more than 60% of Australia’s social housing construction (and 80% of the net increase in provision) in this period. The scale of planned development in Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania, will (at least temporarily) reverse historically declining proportionate representation of social housing in these states. Nevertheless,…
Eligible social housing applicants awaiting tenancy allocation, Australia, 2014-2020
Difficulties encountered by state governments in rehousing homeless people from emergency hotel placements in 2020 and 2021 are just one recent symptom of an intensifying shortage of social housing that was apparent well before the pandemic. Growing demand pressure in the immediate pre-COVID period is, for example, evident in the rising numbers of priority applicants awaiting a social housing tenancy in recent years. Figure 6.1 Since 2016 this cohort has expanded by 51%. This followed a 30% rise in homelessness in the previous decade (ABS 2018).
Social housing development activity 2018-20 versus 2021-24
This graph shows the projected national increase in social housing development over the next three years is also in prospect for most jurisdictions. Nevertheless, 61% of all projected commencements over the period will be in just two states, Victoria and Queensland. Despite being the nation’s largest state, NSW will make only a very modest contribution to the Australia-wide total. However, ignoring the highly uneven distribution of this activity across the country, the additional social housing construction projected for delivery ‘as a result of the pandemic’ is substantial.
Overview of pandemic economic shutdowns by jurisdictions
This table shows the timeline of pandemic economic impacts in Australia's 8 state/territories. Crucial here have been the lockdowns that have impeded economic activity, with major implications for employment and incomes, as well as specifically for property transactions. The most significant point of this table is that Victoria alone experienced a long and economically damaging lockdown in the second half of 2020 – an experience which appears to have been reflected in some of the rental market patterns highlighted in subsequent graphs.